Investing in govies today
The year 2008 proved to be the year of all the dangers and of all fears.
First of all, the firmness of the emerging countries supported and stimulated the demand for basic materials and made the inflationary risk re-appear. In this context, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to increase the interest rates up to 4.25% in July.
Then, the generalisation took place :
- Worsening of economic conditions, systematic crisis realised by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the close bankruptcy of AIG, etc.
- The ECB brought back its rates from 4.25% to 2.50% in one single quarter. We do anticipate further drops in 2009.
Concerning the governments, after the support plans of the banks, the majority of the countries intervened to support the markets of the goods and services. The central banks understood the seriousness of the situation and acted as well on the rates as on the interbank markets liquidity.
During the year the portfolio prioritized the liquidity by buying future contracts (Bobl) and an overweight in German titles.
The fund benefited from this strategy: doubling the modified duration compared to the benchmark.
In 2009 the management team foresee that the ECB will lower the interest rates again. Will we see a Japanese style rate curve? No one knows yet, but it is still a possible scenario, realistic enough not to turn your back to Government Bonds...
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Lipper Award for Xavier Chapon
*As at 31/12/08, versus a performance of its benchmark Euro MTS that showed a performance of 10.6% and a volatility of 4.1%. |

